This study examines the trend analysis of agricultural productivity in Kwara State. Agricultural
Agricultural Development Project (KWADP), Ilorin for a period of twenty two years (1992-2013). Descriptive statistics, mean, standard deviation and co-efficient of variation were used in data analysis.Standardized Anomaly Index was used to analyze fluctuation in crop yields. Semi- average method was used in the trend analysis of crop yield. The result of the descriptive statistics shows that production of sorghum was heterogeneous. The result of the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI)also revealed that the crop yields fluctuated around the long –term mean. Annual sorghum and rice yields in 1999 to 2002 vary positively while maize and yam in 1995 to 2002 and 1997 to 2000 respectively varies negatively. 59.1% of the cassava yields fall below the long term mean. The result of the semi-average method shows that all the identified crops exhibit an upward trend. This implies that production of these crops will keep on increasing. The study therefore, suggests that both the State government and private organizations should encourage modern agricultural techniques like application of fertilizer and pesticides to sustain the increasing pattern of crop productivity in the State.
Key words: Trend, Agricultural Productivity, Crop yield, Fluctuations