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EXPERIMENTATION AND MODELING OF INFECTIVE TREATMENT AND RECOVERY OF HIV PATIENTS; (A CASE STUDY OF KWARA STATE)



AJAYI S. K., ADEOYE O. A AND AIYELABEGAN A. B on 06/01/2017

The outbreak and spread of diseases have been studied for many years. The ability to make predictions about diseases could enable scientists to evaluate inoculation/vaccination or isolation plans and may have a significant effect on the mortality rate of a particular epidemic. Therefore this research experimentation and modeling of infective treatment and recovery of HIV patients (a case study of kwara state) will study   the rate at which people contact the HIV, investigate how many people a person can infect at a particular point in time. , develop model for male and female with HIV, develop estimating functions for such a model and determine the control measures and sensitivities to change in parameter. Regression analysis, Chi – square and SIR model were used to analyse the data. Result of the analysis using regression analysis give the fitted model Y= 12.302 + 0.00009X and Y= 13.077 + 0.00007X for male and Female respectively. The result shows that the fitted model is adequate and the rate at which people contact HIV is increasing. Also chi - square analysis revealed that  contacts of  HIV is independent of gender and that there are significant differences in respondents health status when taking drugs recommended by health workers. Further analysis using SIR model shows that there will likely be epidemic on HIV and that 29% of the male patient living with  HIV  must be treated to avoid epidemics  9% of the female patient living with  HIV must be treated to avoid epidemics. And we recommend that Health Planner should administer enough drugs   to HIV patient on regular basis and Health Planner should educate people more on HIV and the preventive measure should be thought.

Key Word: Modeling, Disease, Infective, Treatment, Patients and HIV